Elon Musk is telling investors the Cybercab is finally rolling off the line. Prediction market traders are pricing in a much slower story than the one Tesla is selling.
Tesla Inc. has started manufacturing the two-seat driverless sedan, Musk said Friday on X, fulfilling a long-promised production timeline as the company’s global sales slump and the stock sits down 17% year-to-date.
The Cybercab was unveiled two years ago without a steering wheel or pedals, a design that will need exemptions from US regulators before it can scale. Musk has said it will be cheaper than anything else in the Tesla lineup.Don’t Miss:
What Polymarket Is Pricing
Polymarket traders give Tesla a 9% chance of launching a driverless robotaxi service in California by June 30.
Tesla has not filed for the permit required to run autonomous taxis in the state, and its Bay Area operation is a human-driven taxi service running under a standard charter permit.
According to Polymarket, there is a 35% chance that Tesla sells a Cybercab for $30,000 or less in 2026, up slightly over the last few weeks. That was the price Musk promised at the 2024 unveiling.A separate Polymarket contract on whether Tesla will open orders for the Robovan before 2027 is pricing 20%. That vehicle was unveiled alongside the Cybercab in 2024 and has largely disappeared from the conversation since.
The Cybertruck Playbook Is A Warning
The question of who actually buys the Cybercab matters.
SpaceX accounted for more than 18% of all Cybertruck registrations in the US during the fourth quarter, with other Musk-run companies picking up another 60 units.
Without those inter-company transfers, Cybertruck registrations would have fallen 51% in Q4.
A vehicle with no steering wheel faces an even narrower first customer pool. Robotaxi fleets on Musk-owned land, SpaceX campuses, or Boring Co. tunnels would sidestep the regulatory exemption problem entirely and keep production volumes looking respectable.
The Rollback Hidden In The Investor Letter
Tesla told investors on Wednesday that Robotaxi service is on track to expand to Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Las Vegas in the first half of 2026.
The investor letter quietly softened that timeline. The five new cities were previously tagged “1H 2026” and are now listed as “preparations underway.”
Musk said on the same call that material Robotaxi revenue is unlikely to show up before 2027.
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